Monday, May 02, 2011

To Swing voters of Aljunied: Victory margin could be less than 300 votes! Every vote counts!

Dear Swing Voters of Aljunied,


Every vote counts. Do not spoil your vote.

The outcome of the Aljunied GRC election result may depend on fewer than 300 votes based on my back of envelope analysis thus:

2006 Aljunied GRC elections( Historical data)

Total eligible votes (ie qualified to vote) : 145,141 (100%)

Actual votes cast ( Eligible votes minus those who did not cast vote eg out of Singapore) : 135,817 (93.6%). ie 9324 (6.4%) did not vote

Spoilt Votes : 2381 (approx 1.8% of votes cast of 135817)

Voted for PAP : 74843 ( 56.1% of valid votes ie total votes cast minus spoilt votes (135817-2381))

Voted for WP : 58593 (43.9% of valid votes )

PAP's winning margin =16250 (74843-58593)

2011 Aljunied GRC elections (possible scenario)

Total eligible votes ie Singaporeans in Aljunied GRC qualified to vote :143148

There are a few assumptions I need to make :

1. Same 6.4% do not cast vote ( eg out of Singapore):

Hence total votes cast 133987 ( 143148 less 6.4%)



2. Same 1.8% spoilt vote rate

Total valid votes 131575 ( 133987 less 1.8%)



3. Swing vote towards WP of 6%

Click here for the link :http://www.smu.edu.sg/news_room/smu_in_the_news/2011/sources/Yahoo!_20110420_1.pdf

Dr Derek da Cunha a political analysis of more than 20 years experience was giving a pre-election analysis at the Singapore Management University, together with law lecturer Dr.Eugene Tan on 30 th April 2011.

Da Cunha predicted a 3-5 % swing on average towards the opposition parties ( in straight fights) and up to 7% if the opposition party is Workers’ Party in view of (what I call), its branding premium.

Please note that this discussion was held before WP chief, Low Thia Khiang, made known that he is throwing his hat into the Aljunied ring together with Sylvia Lim , Chen Show Mao, Pritam Singh and Muhamad Faisal Manap. This is effective the A team of WP (most say the A team of all non-PAP teams).

According to the scenario:

Vote for PAP

If same as 2006 (no swing) ie 56.6%: 74471

If 6% swing away (compared to 2006) ie 50.1% (56.6- 6%): 65919

Vote for WP

If same as 2006(no swing) ie 43.9% : 57761

If 6% swing towards (compared to 2006) ie 49.9% (43.9 + 6 %): 65656

The winning margin is a razor thin 263!

And the spoilt vote number ( if 1.8%) : 2368 (1.8% of 131575)

Conclusion:

Dear Singaporean of Aljunied GRC,
This is the one that is called the “defining moment”.

We have to learn to have strength of conviction and not take the easy way out and “cop out” by spoiling your vote.

If not now, when?

If not me, who?

Your vote is secret!

Peace,

Dr Huang Shoou Chyuan

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

VOTE PAP! :D

Anonymous said...

VOTE WORKERS PARTY!

Anonymous said...

Vote with your head, your heart and with courage! ; )

Anonymous said...

Before U vote, ask yourself this question and answer it honestly and truthfully.

Are U better off now as compared to 5 years ago?

ab said...

My honest answer to the question,

"Are U better off now as compared to 5 years ago?"

An emphatic "NO".

Anonymous said...

Pritam Singh is pretty impressive speaker who talks sense. Impressive team. PAP will go all out to do all kinds of things to coerce. So, yes, every vote counts.

Citizen said...

Worker party definitely!
it is time for more dignity as a citizen,
it is time for our voice to be heard not ignored,
it is Time... For our ideas not to pushed away, for our feedback not be twisted and for us Not to be treated like a liability! Good bye PAP and I will not regret the 5 talents lost. At least I have another 5 WP talents!

Anonymous said...

Vote Everybody Party!

Anonymous said...

Vote for a change.
Vote without fear nor favour.

Anonymous said...

NCMP also a voice in parliament. Why did WP reject it outright even before elections?
Can someone enlighten me?

Anonymous said...

To:
Voters in Aljunied GRC.

All eyes are on You; make history to show that You will joined other Singaporeans to make change to better our livelihoods. Like other Singaporeans in other precincts, You see for yourselves that livings have become a struggle. Your families, neighbours, friends, colleagues and others around You are all affected by RISING COST OF LIVING.

Your working hours are longer and more responsibilities are added whilst your pay are stagnant, bonuses are lesser or no more. Your children and grandchildren will have to pay a lot more for their much smaller houses and medical expenditures maybe well beyond our affordabilities.

We cannot wait any longer for our rulers to regain their consciences. They knew our plights but chose to cast us aside to care for themselves first. Just look at how they pay themselves! Many million SIN Dollars per year which many of us do not even make in our whole life!

Fellow voters of Aljunied GRC; please join voters in Hougang and Potong Pasir and hopefully voters in other parts of Singapore will do the same. Together, we can make the change for the better.

Me am also a voter in another GRC and I WILL VOTE FOR CHANGE.

patriot

Anonymous said...

There is NOTHING an NCMP can do if PM Lee decided to build 2 nuclear power stations beside your flat for redundancy sake and to sell excess power to Asean despite strong reservations from PAP MPs who have to toe the party stand.

The debate on the IR is an eye opener for Singaporeans.

Anonymous said...

Check this out

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v53_cx1gC9I&feature=player_embedded

salvationtime said...

Aljunied is surely not the only hot seat but the only seat that the pap fears - why? Bcos the opponents are too strong, set to prove themselves, it will be difficult to unseat them in future. So, aljunied voters should have a hint that life can't be hell if they vote opp, its a matter of whether can they perform better, or just so-so, same as their previous MPs (dun talk abt ministers). We would love to know your rating in next GE or if your vote go otherwise, then there's nothing to see from here on.

23princessroad said...

Let's hope for a nice, dry day on May 7 so that the turnout will be at its maximum.

Anonymous said...

There are few scenarios that Singaporeans must understand in this GE2011:

1. More voices but no change - To have less than 1/3 opposition seats in parliament will not change anything already done, e.g. cost of living, FTs, property prices, etc except that opposition MPs can make more noises and suggestions that PAP in majority may not listen. There is also a risk that PAP back in power will find ways to suppress all oppositions so that there will not be any chance of voting like in this GE2011.

2. Partial change - To have more than 1/3 and less than 2/3 opposition seats will be likely to change some already done as above but will not change the Constitution that allows GRC, NMP, NCMP, and election boundary redrawing. PAP will still be in power or sharing power with oppositions. This may be harder for PAP in power to diminish the oppositions.

3. Complete change - To have more than 2/3 opposition seats means the alternative party will be the government and PAP the opposition. This can change everything including the Constitution. However, Singaporeans must make sure the elected government rewrites the Constitution to abolish those ill clauses and introduce check and balance clause. Also, to ensure Constitution is not allowed to change without referendum. Otherwise, the next non-PAP government may have the chance to abuse the Constitution as well.

Basically, this GE2011 is not about local town upgrading, FTs, or cost of living, etc. It is about whether Singaporeans would like to take back the political power and have a say on the future of Singapore. Once the people take back the power, they can then have a say on how to run this country and all those policies and problems will be resolved to their preference.

Singaporeans must vote wisely on 7 May to decide what they want in the future.

Anonymous said...

At least 7 GRCs are vulnerable; anything can happen & that's why this year so exciting, so unpredictable, so new. Anyone who is worried, just take out history books and read that PAP was once unknown party in the wilderness and look what we achieved as a nation today. Fear not and feel the change Singaporeans!

AAA said...

We Singaporeans must all unite to put down the Terror that keep terrorising us no end with threats after threats.

Osama bin Laden is dead! When will the Singapore's version of the King of Terror die? Should we all wait for him to die first before anyone has the balls to vote against the self-enriching and self-righteous big bully uncaring elitists and allow them to LORD over us without any respite?

Fellow Singaporeans, vote for our future, not the multi-millionaires' future and their childrens' future (one of them will become the next PM for sure.)

Stop the curse of a Lee Dynasty NOW!

Anonymous said...

Are U better off now as compared to 5 years ago?
without a doubt, No!

How about trusting the PAP for another 5 years?
without a doubt, NO!

PAP($)~($)Eyeballs

Aurvandil said...

Heard that the PAP is supremely confident of victory. With the exception of Aljunied, they have put down the deposits for the victory celebrations of yet another 5 good years !

In the off chance than George and Co somehow survive, they have even made contingency plans for extra tables at the Marine Parade celebration.

Anonymous said...

Aljunied residents should ask themselves this question:

Will you vote for PAP party which form majority of government, which is blatantly corrupted with enormous abuse of power and authority ? Have we not see how there is serious lack of accountability , transparency and responsibility on this government when come to dealing with Lee family. Have we not witness the kind of corruption that Dr Yat Sun Sen fight hard to remove the Qing Dynasty ? Ours is no different from Qing Dynasty except it is Lee Dynasty with disguise of democracy. Just look at those PAP MP, and ministers that rubberstamp on the policies to secure and enrich themselves, don't you think they worse than scumbag and lackeys ? Don't you know that these lackeys control media and the press because they know what they doing is wrong and corrupted, and therefore should not be critically analyzed ? Do you want your future children to be part of this corrupted regime ?

Do you remember Lim Bo Seng, the patriotic hero and those who fight against the Japanese to free Singapore from invaders, and give freedom to people ? Do you remember LKY and nathan who choose to work for the govt against people of Singapore, and now they continue to work against the interest of the Singapore ? What they do now is for their own interest.

If you vote and support this PAP party, you are as good as accomplice to the deed of this party. Remember the karma. Your vote is your karma, and you should bear consequences of your vote , because rest assure the government will definitely introduce unprecedented number of foreigners to replace the local, selling more national assets that is treason. We know and experience that well, don't we ?

Absolute power corrupts, and absolute power destroys.

So vote wisely. Vote with both your heart and your head.

Anonymous said...

Since when is PAP not supremely confident? They only think all this is noise. If they do win, S'pore will be unbearable to endure with their endless smugness in our faces.

The Pariah said...

Minister Lim Swee Say said in Parliament on 3 Mar 2010: "WE ARE DEAF TO ALL THESE CRITICISMS" (recorded in Hansard Parliamentary Report).

Over past 5 years, PAP have PROVEN that they cannot hear Singaporeans' Wake-Up Call.

So, Voters must whack PAP hard before PAP can wake-up.

ACTION (your vote for Opposition) SPEAKS LOUDER THAN WORDS (your feedback to PAP)!

salvationtime said...

Sure. PAP is very confident of victory as past election has said so. All these noises are just the minority. I'm not surpised who's the one triumphant over aljunied victory. Then do we all want to observe a minute of silence post-election for the 'freak' results?